Coronavirus in 2021: A look at Utah’s COVID-19 situation to begin the new year

SALT LAKE CITY — We’ve now entered the 2021 portion of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has already been met with cautious optimism by public health officials for a few reasons.

Unlike in the beginning of the pandemic in the state back in March 2020, there is now a vaccine that is available to combat the spread of the coronavirus. That said, the rollout of the vaccine has gone slower than expected. The Utah Department of Health’s immunization leader said last week that despite vaccinations ramping up at the end of 2020, he anticipated there will probably be delays in the state’s original timetable for certain groups to receive the vaccine.

The health department and other Utah health care experts are still keeping close tabs on the current COVID-19 statistics to see if the December holidays like Christmas and New Year’s Eve will lead to another uptick in cases and hospitalizations.

Utah’s seven-day rolling average of new cases per day was 2,800 on Tuesday, which is on the rise but still not as high as the 2020 peak of 3,364.6 cases per day recorded on Nov. 22. There are also nearly 100 fewer current hospitalizations from COVID-19 as compared to the 2020 high of 606 set on Dec. 4.

That said, the health department reported Monday that Utah’s seven-day rolling average of case positivity rate crept over 30% for the first time as it continues to rise. It was 32.1% as of Tuesday, although the figure is backdated to Dec. 30 to account for more complete results of all tests taken on that day.

Since it is the new year, here’s a review of current statistics and storylines in Utah to get a better view of the pandemic at the beginning of 2021.

Utah’s COVID-19 situation in the 1st week of 2021

There have been 288,951 total COVID-19 cases in Utah, 11,356 Utahns hospitalized by COVID-19, and 1,312 deaths as a result of the coronavirus since March 2020. In addition, over 1.7 million Utahns have been tested a total of more than 2.7 million times.

Of course, that’s a long stretch of time and most of the cases reported — a little over 236,000 in all — have resulted in reported recoveries. That’s not to say all of those recoveries still don’t suffer from coronavirus-related complications, but those who test positive for COVID-19 and survive are marked as “recovered” three weeks after they tested positive.

As of Tuesday, here is what the state’s COVID-19 situation looks like on a more current scale:

• 2,800 seven-day running average of cases per day
• 51,443 active COVID-19 cases
• Average of about 16,021 total tests per day over past seven days (note: some of these are not new people tested)
• 32.1% seven-day rolling average test positivity rate
• 66.9 seven-day rolling average COVID-19 hospitalizations by day (note: some new hospitalizations not reported yet)
• 510 current hospitalizations due to COVID-19
• 84% statewide intensive care unit utilization (86% at referral centers)
• 43 deaths reported since New Year (note: some likely from the end of 2020)
• 55,981 Utahns vaccinated
• 150,125 vaccine doses shipped to Utah

Was there a post-holiday uptick?

It’s simply too early to tell if the holiday season will factor into a rise in new cases. COVID-19 cases are on the rise but it’s unclear if that’s due to holiday gatherings or because testing numbers are starting to return to levels closer to where they were prior to the holiday season.

Dr. Todd Vento, an infectious disease physician for Intermountain Healthcare, pointed out on Monday that the incubation period following New Year’s isn’t over yet. It means that officials should be able to determine if there was a holiday-related spike in the coming days and weeks.

If there was an uptick in new cases due to holiday events, it’s likely that rise won’t be reflected in hospitals until mid-to-late January, Vento explained. Health care experts have pinpointed that new cases usually don’t result in an increase of new hospitalizations until a week or two after the case uptick begins.

Utah’s rising positivity rate

The state’s positivity rate is one statistic that could indicate a post-holiday rise. The rate increased even when testing declined and then began to rebound last month. After it steadily rose beginning on Dec. 13, the seven-day test positivity rate has really skyrocketed over the past few data updates.

Utah’s seven-day rolling positivity rate figure hit 25.8% on Christmas Day and then jumped to 32.1% by Dec. 30, which is what was reported Tuesday. Health officials have explained in the past that a higher rate typically indicates that there are widespread unreported cases, such as asymptomatic cases or people who don’t get tested.

“We worry that we’re not testing enough and that there may be more out there,” Vento said. “In order to interpret the test positivity, I would certainly look at the trend over time with the average of it and every day you look at cases, look at the test positivity and look at the number of tests.”