Austin’s assertion that US wants to ‘weaken’ Russia underlines Biden strategy shift
A National Security Council spokesperson said that Austin’s comments were consistent with what the US’ goals have been for months — namely, “to make this invasion a strategic failure for Russia.”
“We want Ukraine to win,” the spokesperson added. “One of our goals has been to limit Russia’s ability to do something like this again, as Secretary Austin said. That’s why we are arming the Ukrainians with weapons and equipment to defend themselves from Russian attacks, and it’s why we are using sanctions and export controls that are directly targeted at Russia’s defense industry to undercut Russia’s economic and military power to threaten and attack its neighbors.”
US officials traveling with Austin said that the message is one that he planned to reiterate, according to a senior administration official. Russia coming out of the conflict weaker than before is an idea that other Biden administration officials have referenced. US officials, however, had previously been reluctant to state as plainly that the US’ goal is to see Russia fail, and be militarily neutered in the long term, remaining cautiously optimistic that some kind of negotiated settlement could be reached.
One eastern European official told CNN that mentality was incredibly frustrating. “The only solution to this is for Ukraine to win,” he said.
The shift in strategy has come about over the past few weeks, evidenced by a growing tolerance for increased risk with the more complex, western weaponry being sent in, and is a reflection of the belief that Putin’s goals in Ukraine would not end if he manages to seize part of Ukraine, as they didn’t after the 2014 annexation of Crimea, a British diplomat said.
“Even if they come up with some fix where (Putin) gets a bit of the Donbas and it all goes dormant, logic would dictate there’s more road to run in this. So therefore what you can take off the battlefield in this window is not only a short-term win it’s also a longer term strategy as well.”
“So it has already lost a lot of military capability,” Austin said. “And a lot of its troops, quite frankly. And we want to see them not have the capability to very quickly reproduce that capability.”
Biden administration officials are optimistic that that is an achievable goal, sources told CNN. Administration officials and congressional sources said they believe that the continued military support to Ukraine could result in significant blows to Russia that will impair their long-term military capabilities, strategically benefiting the US.
Already, the US has begun to send heavier and more sophisticated equipment to Ukraine that it had refrained from providing in the past, including 72 howitzers and Phoenix Ghost tactical drones.
“The way we are looking at this is that it’s making an investment to neuter the Russian army and navy for next decade,” said a congressional source familiar with the ongoing military assistance to Ukraine.
White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Monday that while “obviously right now the war is in Ukraine,” the US and its allies are “are also looking to prevent (Russia) from expanding their efforts and President Putin’s objectives beyond that too.”
A delicate ‘balancing act’
Officials noted, though, that the US and its allies are carefully threading a needle when it comes to penalizing Russia — both because of the collateral damage harsh sanctions could have on the global economy, and because of the risk that Putin could lash out if he is backed too far into a corner.
A source familiar with the US’ intelligence assessments about Russia said “there is certainly a balancing act that needs to be taken into consideration” when punishing the country, “whether it’s in the sanctions space or in the military and intelligence support space.”
This person added that while the US still assesses that Putin’s red lines for use of nuclear weapons haven’t changed, “one of those red lines is regime stability,” they said — meaning that Putin could lash out if he feels his rule is seriously threatened.
A US official said separately that he believes Austin’s comments were not helpful for that reason, and because it could play into the Russian propaganda line that NATO and US support for Ukraine is a power play.
The goal is not to tell the Russians that “no matter what, the US and NATO are going to weaken you,” this official said, but rather that the West will aim to punish Russia as long as it is at war with Ukraine.
A State Department spokesperson said that the sanctions the US and its allies have put in place are “all in response to Putin’s war of aggression in Ukraine. They are intended to prevent Putin from buying more ammo, guns, missiles –…
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